Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu – Do These 12 Things First If You Want a Bright Future | Bjorn Lomborg PT 1

Intro

In this episode of Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, Tom talks with Bjorn Lomborg about his data-driven and counterintuitive approach to solving contentious problems. Lomborg believes that panic is not an effective mode for solving issues and that most things in the world are getting better, but there is still work to be done. They discuss the importance of understanding why we are where we are before taking action and the need to focus on what actually works, not just where to spend money. They also touch on the threat of AI, the need for prioritization, and the value of benefit cost analysis in evaluating solutions and policies.

Main Takeaways

Approach to Problem-Solving

• Impact Theory show has evolved through three phases: mindset, deployment, and problem-solving.
• Bjorn Lomborg’s approach to solving contentious problems is data-driven and counterintuitive.
• Panic is not an effective mode for solving issues.
• Most things in the world are getting better, but there is still work to be done.

Climate Change and Media Influence

• Climate change is a problem, but it’s not the end of the world.
• Many people are scared about climate change because of what they see in the media.
• People pushing the global warming agenda want others to spend money on it.
• We have a negativity bias and are more likely to believe negative things are true.

The Importance of Prioritization

• It’s important to understand why we are where we are before taking action.
• We need to focus on what actually works, not just where to spend money.
• AI is a bigger threat than climate change, with a 33% chance of being the cause of mankind’s demise this century (Toby Ord).
• Entrepreneurs must be able to think through novel problems.

Benefit Cost Analysis and Trade-offs

• Prioritizing is key to solving complex issues.
• Deescalating panic is necessary for long-term solutions.
• Short-term thinking is a result of panic.
• Benefit cost analysis is a methodology for evaluating solutions and policies.

Defining Your North Star

• Defining your North Star: what are you optimizing for?
• Benefit analysis helps determine how much good can be achieved by spending money in different areas.
• There is a trade-off between saving lives and spending money on other things like education or public works.
• People are willing to take on more risk for higher pay, such as in dangerous jobs.

Summary

Approach to Problem-Solving

The Impact Theory show has evolved through three phases: mindset, deployment, and problem-solving. Bjorn Lomborg’s approach to solving contentious problems is data-driven and counterintuitive. He believes that panic is not an effective mode for solving issues and that most things in the world are getting better, but there is still work to be done. Lomborg emphasizes the importance of understanding why we are where we are before taking action and the need to focus on what actually works, not just where to spend money.

Climate Change and Media Influence

While climate change is a problem, it is not the end of the world. Lomborg believes that many people are scared about climate change because of what they see in the media. He also suggests that people pushing the global warming agenda want others to spend money on it. Lomborg highlights the negativity bias that makes us more likely to believe negative things are true and the need to approach the issue with a more balanced perspective.

The Importance of Prioritization

Lomborg argues that AI is a bigger threat than climate change, with a 33% chance of being the cause of mankind’s demise this century. He believes that entrepreneurs must be able to think through novel problems and prioritize effectively. Deescalating panic is necessary for long-term solutions, as short-term thinking is a result of panic. Lomborg encourages focusing on what works and not letting one issue, like climate change, dominate all attention and resources. He suggests being more concerned about tuberculosis and education, as well as understanding the trade-offs between saving lives and spending money on other areas.

Benefit Cost Analysis and Trade-offs

Lomborg emphasizes the importance of benefit cost analysis in evaluating solutions and policies. This methodology helps determine how much good can be achieved by spending money in different areas and guides decision-making. He discusses the trade-off between saving lives and spending money on other things like education or public works. Lomborg also highlights the willingness of people to take on more risk for higher pay, such as in dangerous jobs, and the need to consider these factors when making trade-offs.

Defining Your North Star

Lomborg suggests defining your North Star, which is what you are optimizing for. This helps prioritize ruthlessly and make trade-offs in life. He encourages pulling invisible assumptions into visible values and demanding results based on your North Star. Lomborg emphasizes the importance of considering the three areas of benefit analysis: people, planet, and prosperity. He believes that valuing all aspects of the environment, including non-human life forms and natural landscapes, is important and that we should be willing to spend something to preserve the environment, even if it doesn’t directly impact our lives.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Bjorn Lomborg’s data-driven and counterintuitive approach to solving problems emphasizes the importance of understanding why we are where we are and focusing on what actually works. He challenges the prevailing panic around climate change and encourages a more balanced perspective. Lomborg highlights the need for prioritization, benefit cost analysis, and defining a North Star to guide decision-making. By considering trade-offs and demanding results, we can make progress in solving complex issues and improving the world.