398. Dr. Jordan Peterson Speaks to a U.S. Hostage Negotiator | Ambassador Robert O’Brien | The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast

Intro

In this episode of “The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast,” Dr. Jordan Peterson speaks with Ambassador Robert O’Brien, the former US security advisor under Donald Trump and the president’s hostage envoy. They discuss the inner workings of international hostage negotiations, the Abraham Accords negotiated under President Trump, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the current perception of diminished American strength.

Main Takeaways

Ambassador Robert O’Brien’s Role as the US Hostage Envoy

• Ambassador Robert O’Brien unexpectedly became the fourth US security advisor under Donald Trump, having previously served as the president’s hostage envoy.
• His commitment to keeping America safe and his good relationship with President Trump led to a successful tenure, with many accomplishments during his time in office.
• O’Brien’s involvement as the US hostage envoy began in late 2017 when he was asked to fill the role by the White House, despite not planning on going into government.
• His extensive international experience and legal background prepared him for the role of hostage envoy.

The Success of Hostage Negotiations

• Negotiations were conducted through third-party governments like the Swiss and directly with countries like Russia and the Taliban.
• American hard power and support from the bureaucracy were crucial in negotiations, aligning with the “peace through strength” approach.
• Prioritizing a strong America for peace in the world helped in negotiations.
• The military option was likely to be brought forward rapidly for hostage situations.

The Perception of American Weakness and its Impact

• The current administration’s emphasis on diplomacy and soft power may be perceived as American weakness, impacting hostage situations and geopolitical dynamics.
• American weakness can be provocative, and adversaries may take advantage of perceived vulnerabilities.
• The handling of events like the Afghanistan withdrawal and the failure to deter Putin in Ukraine can contribute to the perception of American weakness.
• Adversaries may have a different perspective on international relations, and their actions may not align with what the US considers rational.

President Trump’s Diplomatic Strategy

• President Trump’s approach to diplomacy was to be cordial with adversaries while backing up his rhetoric with hard power.
• The combination of cordiality and frankness, backed by American hard power, was a key part of Trump’s diplomatic strategy.
• Trump’s approach helped to prevent the start of a new war during his presidency.
• Adversaries understood that crossing American red lines would result in a heavy price, leading to a more cautious approach from them.

The Impact of Trump’s Negotiation Tactics

• Trump’s negotiation tactics and the initiation of the Abraham Accords contributed to a decrease in terrorist activity and a major peace process.
• Despite his blustery and provocative image, Trump’s approach set up circumstances for successful negotiations and prevented incursions like Russia’s in Ukraine.
• Trump’s backbone and confidence in using all tools of American national power, including economic and diplomatic, influenced both adversaries and allies.
• The resolve and strength displayed by Trump benefited Ukraine and Europe, reflecting a significant accomplishment of the Trump administration.

Summary

Ambassador Robert O’Brien’s Role as the US Hostage Envoy

Ambassador Robert O’Brien unexpectedly became the fourth US security advisor under Donald Trump, having previously served as the president’s hostage envoy. His commitment to keeping America safe and his good relationship with President Trump led to a successful tenure, with many accomplishments during his time in office. O’Brien’s involvement as the US hostage envoy began in late 2017 when he was asked to fill the role by the White House, despite not planning on going into government. His extensive international experience and legal background prepared him for the role of hostage envoy, where he took on the job of bringing Americans held abroad back home, which was a sacrifice for his family and law partners. The success of this mission was credited to the president’s tough stance on bringing Americans home.

The Success of Hostage Negotiations

Negotiations were conducted through third-party governments like the Swiss and directly with countries like Russia and the Taliban. American hard power and support from the bureaucracy were crucial in negotiations, aligning with the “peace through strength” approach. Prioritizing a strong America for peace in the world helped in negotiations. O’Brien changed the memo to prioritize military force as the first resort for rescuing Americans. The modern special operations community was formed after the failed attempt to rescue American diplomats in 1980. Special forces were used to rescue hostages and send a message to adversaries that there is a penalty for taking Americans and they will be rescued. Moving the military option up the list of priorities decreased risk in specific situations. The US military’s hostage rescue operations serve as a deterrent and prevent further hostage taking.

The Perception of American Weakness and its Impact

The current administration’s emphasis on diplomacy and soft power may be perceived as American weakness, impacting hostage situations and geopolitical dynamics. American weakness can be provocative, and adversaries may take advantage of perceived vulnerabilities. The handling of events like the Afghanistan withdrawal and the failure to deter Putin in Ukraine can contribute to the perception of American weakness. Adversaries may have a different perspective on international relations, and their actions may not align with what the US considers rational. Putin saw weakness in the US and sensed an opportunity to gain territory and resources in Ukraine. He viewed invading Ukraine as a rational move to address Russia’s demographic problem and increase its trade capability. The US missed the opportunity to prevent the war in Ukraine by not effectively countering Putin’s move.

President Trump’s Diplomatic Strategy

President Trump’s approach to diplomacy was to be cordial with adversaries while backing up his rhetoric with hard power. He maintained cordial relations with Putin, Kim Jong-un, and Xi Jinping but also imposed sanctions and showed military strength. The combination of cordiality and frankness, backed by American hard power, was a key part of Trump’s diplomatic strategy. Trump’s approach helped to prevent the start of a new war during his presidency. Adversaries understood that crossing American red lines would result in a heavy price, leading to a more cautious approach from them. Trump’s insistence on NATO partners paying their fair share for defense led to a significant shift in European contributions, a feat that previous presidents had failed to achieve. Trump’s backbone and confidence in using all tools of American national power, including economic and diplomatic, influenced both adversaries and allies. The resolve and strength displayed by Trump benefited Ukraine and Europe, reflecting a significant accomplishment of the Trump administration.

The Impact of Trump’s Negotiation Tactics

Trump’s negotiation tactics and the initiation of the Abraham Accords contributed to a decrease in terrorist activity and a major peace process. Despite his blustery and provocative image, Trump’s approach set up circumstances for successful negotiations and prevented incursions like Russia’s in Ukraine. Trump’s backbone and confidence in using all tools of American national power, including economic and diplomatic, influenced both adversaries and allies. The resolve and strength displayed by Trump benefited Ukraine and Europe, reflecting a significant accomplishment of the Trump administration. President Trump’s tough stance on NATO spending led to an increase in defense spending commitments from 4-5 countries to 11, with an overall increase in commitments of $400 billion over 10 years. The increase in defense spending allowed European countries to acquire new platforms and weapons systems, and some of the old equipment was sent to Ukraine when Russia invaded. Despite criticism, the results of Trump’s approach were successful, as acknowledged by some Germans at a defense conference in Prague.

Conclusion

Ambassador Robert O’Brien’s insights shed light on the inner workings of international hostage negotiations and the importance of American strength in achieving successful outcomes. The perception of American weakness can have significant implications for hostage situations and geopolitical dynamics. President Trump’s diplomatic strategy, characterized by a combination of cordiality and frankness backed by American hard power, played a crucial role in preventing new wars and achieving significant accomplishments such as the Abraham Accords. The impact of negotiation tactics and the prioritization of a strong America in negotiations cannot be underestimated. Moving forward, it is essential to address the perception of American weakness and find ways to engage with adversaries while maintaining a position of strength.