Intro
In this episode of “The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway,” Scott Galloway has a conversation with Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of the Eurasia Group at G0 Media. They discuss the top geopolitical risks for 2024 and delve into various topics such as the internal division within the United States, the conflict in the Middle East, and the impact of ungoverned AI. This episode provides valuable insights into the current global landscape and the challenges that lie ahead.
Main Takeaways
Top Geopolitical Risks for 2024
- The biggest risks include the United States versus itself, the Middle East on the brink, and ungoverned AI.
- Ian Bremmer positions the risks as Russia versus Ukraine, Israel versus Hamas, and the United States versus itself.
- The internal division within the United States is considered the biggest threat.
Discussion on Current Events
- A Boeing 737 Max 9 lost a door mid-air, which is concerning.
- There’s a discussion about a flight attendant falling 30,000 feet and supposedly surviving, along with rumors about an iPhone surviving as well.
- Congress invited a government shutdown.
- The stock and bond markets experienced their worst start in over two decades, and the drama “Othello” won at the Golden Globes.
- Nearly 20% of office space was vacant at the end of last year, the highest since 1979, and plagiarism controversies are making headlines.
Challenges in Universities and Affirmative Action
- The speaker criticizes the media’s focus on defining plagiarism and shares thoughts on the importance of intent and the need to move on from past controversies.
- The speaker believes that President Gaye should have resigned due to pressure from donors and the lack of governance in universities, which prioritize donors over students and alumni.
- The Rolexification of university campuses and the emergence of departments with vague outcomes are critiqued for not effectively preparing students for economic security and citizenship.
- The concept of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in universities has faced challenges and unintended consequences.
- Affirmative action was needed 60 years ago, but it has reshuffled the elites and needs updating.
- Income-based affirmative action could be a more effective and fair approach, as demonstrated by the University of California’s adoption 26 years ago.
The United States as the Top Risk for 2024
- American trust in institutions has been declining for decades, reaching crisis levels, and the country is more divided and polarized after three years of Biden’s presidency.
- The stakes of the election are high, with potential legal jeopardy for Trump and his team, and Trump’s increasing power within the Republican party impacting policies and the country before the election.
- The United States is identified as the top risk for 2024, with underlying causes including income inequality, social media polarization, and other factors driving division.
- The potential disruption of the world order lies in the risk of the United States, a multicultural democracy, falling apart at the seams.
The Middle East Conflict and US Perception
- Foreign leaders express deep concern about the state of US democracy and fear chaos if Trump wins.
- US allies are hesitant to publicly voice their concerns about Trump’s potential re-election due to the need to work with him, creating a collective action problem.
- The normalization of worsening political situations is facilitated by personal, business, and national interests.
- There is a growing sentiment among young Americans questioning the legitimacy of American institutions and expressing sympathy for Palestinians.
- Many young people view Israel as rich, well-armed, and indifferent to the suffering of Palestinians.
- The US traditionally supports underdogs, as seen in its support for Ukraine against Russian aggression.
- Israel has the right to self-defense, but Palestinians should also have the right to defend themselves and govern their own land.
- The US has provided military support to Israel, including the Iron Dome defense system.
- The speaker suggests that the US should reconsider its support for Israel and understand the sentiment of supporting the underdog.
- There is a shift in perception of Israel among younger Americans, transitioning from being seen as the underdog to being viewed as the bad guys.
- The speaker highlights a perceived double standard in media coverage, suggesting that violence involving Jews is scrutinized more closely than violence involving Muslims.
- Israel is held to a different and higher standard in warfare compared to other countries, and there is a sense of a double standard in the way Israel is treated.
- The discussion touches on the disparity in media coverage and public perception of conflicts involving different groups, such as Muslims and Ukrainians, suggesting a difference in value placed on their lives.
Other Geopolitical Risks and Economic Factors
- Russia’s willingness to endure suffering and patience has not equated to winning, leading to significant losses in reputation and international assets.
- Russia’s population fleeing due to the pipelines.
- China has a growth problem in its consumer and manufacturing economy.
- Mutual interest between US and China to manage their relationship effectively.
- Geopolitical risks causing more supply chain challenges.
- Markets priced for perfection, but reality may disappoint on the downside.
- Market pricing in several rate cuts in 2024 for the Fed.
- Supply chains have demonstrated agility, with Mexico now a larger trading partner than China.
- Supply chain disruptions due to events like COVID and war have caused corporations to consider diversifying their supply chains, leading to a potential ungunking of the supply chain.
- AI is seen as deflationary, potentially impacting wage pressures and job security, particularly in the services industry.
- Labor unions are still fighting for higher wages despite the potential impact of new technologies like electric vehicles and AI on job security and wages.
- Political factors, such as industrial policies, national subsidies, and tariffs, are increasing costs and creating significant impacts on global trade and supply chains.
- The upcoming election in Taiwan is an underreported story with significant importance and potential risks that are not receiving adequate coverage.
- The pro-independence candidate has a 50-50 chance of winning, and if he does, there may be trade challenges and potential inspections by the Chinese, but the situation is manageable.
- Local conflicts, like Ethiopia being at war with Somalia over a breakaway secessionist province, may have significant impacts despite receiving little global attention.
- The height of leaders in rogue states like North Korea, Iran, and Russia is an interesting and overlooked fact.
Potential Optimistic Scenarios for the US in 2024
- The optimistic scenario for the US in 2024 is either a big win for Biden or Nikki Haley getting the Republican nomination and winning.
- There is a possibility of Nikki Haley becoming a strong contender and potentially even the first woman president, leading to significant changes in the political landscape.
- Another unlikely optimistic scenario is a large margin win for Biden, causing Trump and his supporters to lose influence and potentially leading to the Republican Party undergoing significant changes.
- The U.S. needs breathing room and would benefit from postponing the 2024 election to 2028.
- Donald Trump is a symptom of a larger structural problem in the U.S. democracy, not the root cause.
- The American population is misled and angry for legitimate reasons that must be addressed to prevent increasing hostility.
- The threat to America comes from elites who take advantage of and channel the rage of the population.
- Social media can be polarizing and toxic, leading to a need for a break to read and reflect on philosophy and consciousness.
Life Reflection and Inspiration
- Ian Bremer emphasizes the importance of recharging to have the strength to give and not lash out during challenging times.
- Ian Bremer discusses the evaluation of his life in terms of professional, personal, and physical aspects, prioritizing professional goals and economic security.
- He also focuses on improving relationships and staying physically active for mental well-being.
- Bremer suggests reflecting on what inspires and moves you, and considering how it can change your behavior and approach to life.
- He shares a moving audio clip from actor Leslie Jordan, highlighting the impact of inspiration and meaningful moments.
- In 1958, a lieutenant colonel father in Tennessee went to great lengths to make his son happy by finding a beautiful doll for him, despite societal norms at the time.
- The story highlights the importance of prioritizing unfiltered actions and words that demonstrate love, rather than focusing solely on mentoring and coaching.
- The speaker encourages listeners to reflect on how they can show love and appreciation to their loved ones, irrespective of societal expectations and norms.
Summary
Top Geopolitical Risks for 2024
In this episode of “The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway,” Scott Galloway and Ian Bremmer discuss the top geopolitical risks for 2024. The biggest risks identified include the United States versus itself, the Middle East on the brink, and ungoverned AI. Ian Bremmer specifically positions the risks as Russia versus Ukraine, Israel versus Hamas, and the United States versus itself. The internal division within the United States is considered the biggest threat, highlighting the challenges faced by a multicultural democracy.
Discussion on Current Events
The conversation also touches on various current events, including a concerning incident involving a Boeing 737 Max 9 losing a door mid-air. There is also a discussion about a flight attendant falling 30,000 feet and supposedly surviving, along with rumors about an iPhone surviving as well. Congress inviting a government shutdown and the performance of the Speaker of the House, Mike Phillips, in avoiding a shutdown despite differing political views are also discussed. Additionally, the stock and bond markets experiencing their worst start in over two decades and the drama “Othello” winning at the Golden Globes are mentioned. The increasing vacancy of office space and plagiarism controversies making headlines are also highlighted.
Challenges in Universities and Affirmative Action
The speaker criticizes the media’s focus on defining plagiarism and shares thoughts on the importance of intent and the need to move on from past controversies. They also discuss the lack of governance in universities, which prioritize donors over students and alumni. The Rolexification of university campuses and the emergence of departments with vague outcomes are critiqued for not effectively preparing students for economic security and citizenship. The concept of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in universities has faced challenges and unintended consequences. The need to update affirmative action, with a focus on income-based approaches, is also discussed.
The United States as the Top Risk for 2024
The conversation highlights the United States as the top risk for 2024. American trust in institutions has been declining for decades, reaching crisis levels, and the country is more divided and polarized after three years of Biden’s presidency. The stakes of the election are high, with potential legal jeopardy for Trump and his team, and Trump’s increasing power within the Republican party impacting policies and the country before the election. Underlying causes such as income inequality, social media polarization, and other factors driving division are identified as the reasons behind the potential disruption of the world order.
The Middle East Conflict and US Perception
The discussion delves into the Middle East conflict and the perception of the United States. Foreign leaders express deep concern about the state of US democracy and fear chaos if Trump wins. However, US allies are hesitant to publicly voice their concerns about Trump’s potential re-election due to the need to work with him, creating a collective action problem. The normalization of worsening political situations is facilitated by personal, business, and national interests. There is a growing sentiment among young Americans questioning the legitimacy of American institutions and expressing sympathy for Palestinians. The discussion also explores the shifting perception of Israel among younger Americans, from being seen as the underdog to being viewed as the bad guys, and the perceived double standard in media coverage of conflicts involving different groups.
Other Geopolitical Risks and Economic Factors
Russia’s geopolitical risks, China’s consumer and manufacturing economy, and the mutual interest between the US and China in managing their relationship effectively are discussed. The conversation also touches on supply chain challenges, market expectations, the impact of AI on job security and wages, and the importance of political factors in global trade. Underreported stories such as the upcoming election in Taiwan, local conflicts, and the height of leaders in rogue states are mentioned as potential risks and factors that deserve attention.
Potential Optimistic Scenarios for the US in 2024
The episode explores potential optimistic scenarios for the US in 2024, including a big win for Biden or Nikki Haley getting the Republican nomination and winning. The possibility of Nikki Haley becoming the first woman president and leading significant changes in the political landscape is discussed. Another unlikely optimistic scenario is a large margin win for Biden, causing Trump and his supporters to lose influence and potentially leading to significant changes within the Republican Party. The idea of postponing the 2024 election to 2028 is also mentioned as a way for the US to gain breathing room and address structural problems in its democracy.
Life Reflection and Inspiration
The episode concludes with Ian Bremer emphasizing the importance of recharging to have the strength to give and not lash out during challenging times. He discusses the evaluation of his life in terms of professional, personal, and physical aspects, prioritizing professional goals and economic security. Bremer also focuses on improving relationships and staying physically active for mental well-being. He suggests reflecting on what inspires and moves you, and considering how it can change your behavior and approach to life. The episode ends with a moving story highlighting the importance of unfiltered actions and words that demonstrate love, irrespective of societal expectations and norms.
Conclusion
This episode of “The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway” provides a comprehensive exploration of the top geopolitical risks for 2024, including the internal division within the United States, the Middle East conflict, and the impact of ungoverned AI. The conversation delves into current events, challenges in universities and affirmative action, and the perception of the United States in the global landscape. It also examines other geopolitical risks, economic factors, potential optimistic scenarios for the US in 2024, and the importance of life reflection and inspiration. Overall, this episode offers valuable insights into the current global landscape and the challenges that lie ahead.
