Freakonomics – 553. The Suddenly Diplomatic Rahm Emanuel

Intro

In this episode of Freakonomics, host Stephen J. Dubner interviews Rahm Emanuel, the former mayor of Chicago and White House Chief of Staff, who is now serving as the United States Ambassador to Japan. Emanuel, known for his shrewdness and pragmatism, discusses the evolving relationship between the U.S. and Japan, the growing threat from China, and the importance of diplomacy in addressing global challenges.

Main Takeaways

Rahm Emanuel’s Background and Reputation

• Rahm Emanuel, known for being undiplomatic, is now the United States Ambassador to Japan.
• Emanuel has a reputation for being shrewd, pragmatic, and occasionally ruthless.
• Emanuel comes from a competitive and argumentative family, with brothers in sports, entertainment, and healthcare.
• Emanuel sliced off a chunk of his middle finger while working at Arby’s and now flicks his half finger twice for emphasis.

The U.S.-Japan Relationship and the Threat from China

• Emanuel talks tough on China and argues why Japan is more important to the US than ever.
• Japan is increasing its defense budget from 1% to 2% of GDP, becoming the third-largest defense budget in the world in five years.
• Japan is acquiring new capabilities and changing its strategic thinking.
• Japan adopted a law similar to the US’s CIFI-S, which deals with strategic overview of companies being bought or sold.
• Japan is considering providing non-lethal assistance and potentially defensive weapons to other countries.

The Economic Relationship Between the U.S. and Japan

• The US and Japan are each other’s top investors for the fourth consecutive year, indicating a strong economic relationship.
• Japan and other ASEAN countries condemned Russia’s war against Ukraine in a 2022 vote.
• Japan is a political and diplomatic ally of the US, and the relationship is evolving rapidly.
• The US, Japan, and South Korea will hold a trilateral meeting, the first of its kind not on the sidelines of a larger meeting.

The Urgency of Updating Military Structures and Deterrence

• Japan’s Prime Minister Kishito has called for an increase in the defense budget due to concerns about Russia and China’s aggression.
• Japan is doubling their defense budget to acquire skills and capabilities to enhance their deterrence.
• Six or seven things have been identified as the most important to achieve this level of deterrence.
• Japan is changing quickly along many dimensions, and there is a sense of urgency among the political leadership.
• The urgency may be due to the threat from China, but it could be much deeper than that.

The Importance of Diplomacy and Building Relationships

• The US and Japan need to update their military structures and work together to deter together.
• Older voters in the US are more conservative and hawkish on national security, while in Japan, it’s the younger voters who are more hawkish.
• China’s actions have fundamentally altered Japan and the region, making people think and act differently.
• Japan and China have a long history of trade and cultural exchange, but there are also competitiveness and cultural differences.
• Japan and the US are taking defensive measures to protect themselves from China’s actions.

Summary

Rahm Emanuel’s Diplomatic Journey and the U.S.-Japan Relationship

Rahm Emanuel, known for his tough and pragmatic approach, has taken on the role of United States Ambassador to Japan. Despite his reputation for being undiplomatic, Emanuel emphasizes the importance of diplomacy in addressing global challenges. He highlights the evolving relationship between the U.S. and Japan, with Japan’s increasing defense budget and adoption of strategic laws similar to the U.S. CIFI-S. The economic relationship between the two countries remains strong, with Japan being a political and diplomatic ally. The urgency to update military structures and enhance deterrence is driven by concerns about China’s aggression. Building relationships and working together with allies, such as Japan, is crucial in addressing these challenges.

The Threat from China and the Importance of Diplomacy

The threat from China has fundamentally altered Japan and the region, leading to changes in strategic thinking and the adoption of defensive measures. Japan’s increasing defense budget and acquisition of new capabilities reflect the urgency to enhance deterrence against China’s aggression. The U.S. and Japan are working together to update their military structures and deter together. Despite cultural differences and competitiveness, Japan and China have a long history of trade and cultural exchange. The U.S.-Japan relationship is evolving rapidly, with condemnations of Russia’s war against Ukraine and trilateral meetings with South Korea. Diplomacy and building relationships play a crucial role in addressing the challenges posed by China.

Conclusion

Rahm Emanuel’s diplomatic journey as the United States Ambassador to Japan sheds light on the evolving relationship between the two countries and the growing threat from China. Japan’s increasing defense budget, adoption of strategic laws, and consideration of providing assistance to other countries reflect the urgency to enhance deterrence. The U.S. and Japan are working together to update their military structures and address the challenges posed by China’s aggression. Diplomacy and building relationships with allies are key in navigating these complex global dynamics.