My First Million – Our 2020 Predictions For OpenAI Came True… Here’s What’s Next

Intro

In this episode of the “My First Million” podcast, Sam and the speaker review their past predictions and opinions to see what they got right and wrong and what they can learn from them. They also make two new predictions at the end of the episode. The speaker shares his experiment with boosting focus and productivity for work, inspired by pre-workout supplements for workouts. The episode is titled “I Told You So” and covers both correct and incorrect predictions with a sense of humor and humility.

Main Takeaways

Predictions and Learning

• Sam and the speaker are reviewing their past predictions and opinions to see what they got right and wrong and what they can learn from them.
• Predictions are popular but rarely revisited, especially when they are wrong.
• Making accurate predictions is challenging, and even experts get it wrong sometimes.
• Pessimists tend to have a higher hit rate, but optimists make more money.

Sperm Freezing and TRT

• Men’s sperm count is declining rapidly, which is a big concern for future generations.
• Freezing sperm is an option for men who want to preserve their fertility.
• Legacy, a sperm freezing service, has raised around $45 million in funding since Sam tried it.
• Daddy, another sperm freezing service, was acquired for $100 million in 2022.
• Sam and the speaker invested in Hone, a direct-to-consumer TRT company, which is doing well.
• Successful predictions were made about the TRT and sperm collection industries.

NFTs and Social Media Platforms

• NFTs were initially fascinating due to the art aspect but later became focused on making a profit.
• Big Cloud was a social media platform with a crypto component, allowing users to buy into someone’s coin and access exclusive content.
• Big Cloud was similar to Patreon and OnlyFans in terms of providing exclusive content.
• Investing in Big Cloud was nerve-wracking due to the lack of knowledge about the people behind it and the absence of a withdrawal button.
• Bit Clout failed despite being an interesting idea, and several smart people invested millions of dollars into it.
• Friend Tech is a new platform with a similar model to Bit Clout but is currently generating a lot of revenue.

Cloud Kitchens and Clubhouse

• Cloud kitchens are restaurants built for delivery only, with no physical location.
• Social media influencers predicted to create their own restaurant brands.
• Mr. Beast launched a virtual restaurant chain, Beastburger, with over $100 million in gross revenue in year one.
• Cloud kitchens have issues with quality control due to multiple operators with different recipes and quality control.
• Clubhouse was a hot name in social media, attracting big names and investors.
• The speaker wrote a viral Twitter thread predicting Clubhouse’s failure, which eventually came true.

Inertia and Decision-Making

• Sam reflects on how inertia can affect decision making.
• Realization that inertia was playing a role in continuing to work on the same idea and with the same team.
• Having existing investments can influence decision-making.
• People often continue doing things just because they’ve been doing them.

Summary

Predictions and Learning

Sam and the speaker take a retrospective look at their past predictions and opinions, acknowledging that making accurate predictions is challenging even for experts. They discuss the importance of revisiting predictions, learning from mistakes, and finding a balance between being pessimistic and optimistic. While pessimists may have a higher hit rate, optimists tend to make more money.

Sperm Freezing and TRT

The decline in men’s sperm count raises concerns for future generations, leading to the popularity of sperm freezing services like Legacy and Daddy. Sam and the speaker invested in Hone, a direct-to-consumer TRT company, which is thriving. Their successful predictions in the TRT and sperm collection industries highlight the importance of staying informed about advancements in healthcare and fertility preservation.

NFTs and Social Media Platforms

The initial fascination with NFTs for their art aspect shifted towards profit-making opportunities. Big Cloud, a social media platform with a crypto component, allowed users to buy into someone’s coin and access exclusive content. However, investing in Big Cloud was nerve-wracking due to the lack of transparency and withdrawal options. Bit Clout, despite attracting smart investors, ultimately failed. Friend Tech, a similar platform, shows potential for success.

Cloud Kitchens and Clubhouse

Cloud kitchens, designed for delivery-only restaurants, gained popularity among social media influencers who aimed to create their own restaurant brands. Mr. Beast’s success with Beastburger demonstrated the potential of virtual restaurant chains. However, cloud kitchens face challenges with quality control due to multiple operators. Clubhouse, initially a hot name in social media, eventually failed, proving the speaker’s prediction right. The platform transitioned to a hangout product and was sold to Facebook.

Inertia and Decision-Making

Sam reflects on the role of inertia in decision-making, highlighting how people often continue doing things out of habit rather than genuine desire. Existing investments can influence decision-making, making it crucial to reassess priorities and capitalize on new opportunities. The speaker shares personal experiences with inertia and the importance of recognizing its influence in various aspects of life, including relationships and jobs.

Conclusion

Reflecting on past predictions and learning from both successes and failures is essential for growth. The episode emphasizes the need to reassess priorities, capitalize on opportunities, and turn potential energy into action. By understanding human behavior, recognizing hidden opportunities, and having the courage to act on them, listeners can increase their chances of success in various industries.