Revolutions – Appendix 5- The Triggers

Intro

In this episode of the “Revolutions” podcast, the host explores the concept of triggers in revolutions. He delves into the factors that lead to revolutionary action and examines historical examples of triggers that sparked significant political upheaval. By analyzing these triggers, the host aims to shed light on the complex dynamics of revolutions and their impact on societies.

Main Takeaways

Increasing Inability of the Sovereign to Balance Competing Interests

• The sovereign’s inability to manage competing political interests and socioeconomic conditions leads to destabilization.

Hardening Political Divisions

• A shock event hardens political divisions, making peaceful reconciliation increasingly impossible.

Perception of a Weak Sovereign

• Challenging groups see the sovereign as weak, incompetent, and ineffective after the shock event.

Missed Opportunity

• Failing to press advantage would be a missed opportunity, so everyone pushes towards the revolution.

Triggers in Revolutions

• A revolutionary trigger needs to have enough dramatic impact in the moment that people recognize it as a big deal.
• Triggers are rarely planned but are capitalized upon by opportunistic improvisation.
• The trigger takes potential revolutionary energy to kinetic revolutionary action.

Historical Examples of Triggers

• In the English revolution, the trigger was King Charles attempting to arrest five members of Parliament, sparking outrage in London.
• The French Revolution of 1848 was triggered by the massacre of the Capucines, when French troops fired on Parisian demonstrators.
• The collapse of the Second Empire into the Third Republic was triggered by news of the Battle of Sedan and a political vacuum opening up.
• The trigger for the Paris Commune was the regime’s attempt to take the cannons of Paris, similar to the American Revolution.
• The Mexican Revolution was triggered by the National Congress ratifying a fraudulent election, re-electing Porfirio Diaz to the presidency.
• The Russian Revolution of 1917 was triggered by a nice day in Petrograd, which allowed for seamless demonstrations from the Petrograd garrison.

Elements for Successful Revolution

• A revolution requires a cross-class alliance with a broad popular element and some kind of element inside the ruling class.
• Popular uprisings without elite support are merely revolts, and elite cliques trying to seize power without popular support is merely a coup.

Role of Triggers in Revolution

• A trigger event fuses the interests of a breakaway clique in the ruling class and a popular force backing them up.
• The trigger event completes a cross-class alliance necessary for a successful revolution.

Challenges to Sovereign Power

• The trigger opens up the challenge to the sovereign’s last bulwark of power, their preponderance of force.
• Popular forces challenge the sovereign’s claim to preponderance of force.

Revolutionary Unity and Limitations

• Revolutionary force enjoys maximum revolutionary unity, but this unity is fleeting and never outlasts the death of Leviathan.

Upcoming Live Tour

• The speaker is going on a live tour to Boston, Washington D.C., and Newark on October 26th, 27th, and 29th.

Summary

Triggers: Unleashing Revolutionary Energy

Revolutions are rare and unpredictable events that capture our attention due to their uncommon nature. Triggers play a crucial role in transforming potential revolutionary energy into kinetic revolutionary action. These triggers are rarely planned but are instead capitalized upon through opportunistic improvisation. They need to have enough dramatic impact in the moment for people to recognize them as significant events.

Historical Examples of Triggers

The host explores various historical examples of triggers that ignited revolutions. In the English revolution, the trigger was King Charles attempting to arrest five members of Parliament, which sparked outrage in London. Similarly, the French Revolution of 1848 was triggered by the massacre of the Capucines, while the collapse of the Second Empire into the Third Republic was triggered by news of the Battle of Sedan. The Paris Commune was triggered by the regime’s attempt to take the cannons of Paris, and the Mexican Revolution was triggered by a fraudulent election. The Russian Revolution of 1917 was triggered by a seemingly inconsequential nice day in Petrograd, which allowed for seamless demonstrations.

Elements for Successful Revolution

A successful revolution requires a cross-class alliance with a broad popular element and some representation from within the ruling class. Without elite support, popular uprisings are merely revolts, and elite cliques attempting to seize power without popular backing are merely coups. Triggers often fuse the interests of breakaway cliques within the ruling class and popular forces, completing the necessary cross-class alliance for a revolution to succeed.

Challenges to Sovereign Power and Revolutionary Unity

Triggers open up challenges to the sovereign’s power, particularly their claim to preponderance of force. Popular forces challenge this claim, leading to a shift in power dynamics. Revolutionary force experiences maximum unity during the revolution, but this unity is fleeting and does not outlast the demise of the ruling power. The host emphasizes the importance of understanding triggers and their role in revolution to comprehend the complexities of societal transformations.

Conclusion

Triggers play a pivotal role in revolutions, transforming potential energy into action and unleashing popular forces onto the political scene. By examining historical examples and analyzing the elements necessary for successful revolutions, we gain insights into the dynamics of societal change. The host’s exploration of triggers provides a deeper understanding of the complexities and unpredictability of revolutions.