Revolutions – Appendix 6- Victory And Defeat

Intro

In this episode of the “Revolutions” podcast, titled “Appendix 6- Victory And Defeat,” the host explores the final moments of a revolution, focusing on the contest of wills between the sovereign and the revolutionary forces. The episode delves into the factors that contribute to victory or defeat in a revolution, as well as the aftermath of a successful revolution.

Main Takeaways

Revolutionary Coalition

• The revolutionary coalition is a cross-class alliance with members from various socio-economic levels, united by shared geographic ties or ethnic/religious identity.
• Members of the coalition have different interests, ranging from political power to land ownership to higher wages.
• Abstract principles like liberty can also serve as unifying factors.

Leadership in Revolutionary Movements

• Revolutionary coalitions are usually led by multiple leaders rather than a single charismatic figure.
• Major charismatic leaders often emerge after the revolution has started and become unifying figures.

Armed Forces and Support

• Successful revolutions require armed forces capable of taking on the sovereign’s forces, primarily composed of popular elements.
• The loss of support and faith within the armed forces can weaken the sovereign’s power.
• Soldiers owe their loyalty to the concept of the sovereign, not the individual on the throne.

Defeat and Victory

• Defeat for the sovereign occurs when their will to fight dissolves, not necessarily when all their forces have been wiped out.
• Victory in a revolution marks the removal of the unifying obstacle but exposes conflicting interests within the revolutionary coalition.
• The aftermath of victory can lead to the entropy of victory, where the coalition falls apart due to conflicting interests.

Summary

Revolutionary Coalition and Interests

The revolutionary coalition in a successful revolution is a diverse cross-class alliance, united by shared geographic ties, ethnic/religious identity, or abstract principles like liberty. However, the members of the coalition have different interests, such as political power, land ownership, or higher wages. Despite these conflicting interests, the coalition remains united by their common goal of removing the sovereign as an obstacle.

Leadership Dynamics in Revolutionary Movements

Revolutionary movements are usually led by multiple leaders rather than relying on a single charismatic figure. These leaders emerge and gain prominence after the revolution has already started. While charismatic leaders can play a crucial role in unifying the coalition, their rise to prominence often occurs during the revolution itself.

The Role of Armed Forces

Armed forces capable of challenging the sovereign’s forces are essential for a successful revolution. These armed forces primarily consist of popular elements, representing the revolutionary coalition. The loss of support and faith within the sovereign’s armed forces weakens their power and ability to deploy forces effectively. Soldiers owe their loyalty to the concept of the sovereign, not the individual on the throne, which can further undermine the sovereign’s control.

The Contest of Wills and Victory

In a revolution, victory is determined by breaking the enemy’s will to continue the struggle. Defeat for the sovereign occurs when their will to fight dissolves, rather than when all their forces have been wiped out. The period between the trigger being pulled and the sovereign’s will disappearing can vary from several days to many years. Once the forces of revolution achieve victory, the unifying obstacle is removed, but conflicting and competing interests within the coalition can lead to the entropy of victory, potentially causing the coalition to fall apart.

Conclusion

Victory in a revolution is not solely determined by the military power of the sovereign or the revolutionary forces. It hinges on the contest of wills, with the ultimate defeat occurring when the sovereign’s will to fight dissolves. The aftermath of victory brings its own challenges, as conflicting interests within the revolutionary coalition can strain the unity achieved during the revolution. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for comprehending the complexities of revolutionary movements and their outcomes.