Ted Talks Daily – Is the US headed towards another civil war? | Barbara F. Walter

Intro

In this episode of Ted Talks Daily, Barbara F. Walter discusses the possibility of the United States heading towards another civil war. She explores the factors that can potentially lead a country towards civil war and highlights the risks that the US currently faces. Walter also suggests strategies to prevent political violence and promote democracy in the country.

Main Takeaways

Predicting Civil War

• Over 250 civil wars have broken out since 1946 and the number continues to increase.
• There are 38 factors that can potentially lead a country towards civil war.
• Only two factors were highly predictive: whether a country was an autocracy and whether citizens had formed political parties around identity rather than ideology.

The US’s Risk Factors

• The US’s democracy has been downgraded three times since 2016.
• The US has both of the highly predictive factors for civil war: it is not an autocracy but citizens have formed political parties around identity rather than ideology.
• The United States is at high risk of political violence due to the decline of politically dominant groups, such as white men who feel threatened by demographic change.

Demographic Change and Risk

• The US is transitioning from a majority white population to a majority nonwhite population, which is happening in other English-speaking countries as well.
• To manage this change, the US needs to address the two big risk factors of civil war: weak rule of law and unequal access to voting.

Role of Business and Investments

• Business can play a role in promoting democracy and addressing identity politics by investing in communities that have been left behind by globalization and free trade agreements.
• Investing in healthcare, education, and higher minimum wage can create a hopeful future for working-class communities.

Regulating Social Media

• Regulating social media algorithms can reduce the influence of bullies, hate mongers, conspiracy theorists, and enemies of democracy.
• Allowing free speech but not amplifying incendiary and divisive messages can prevent civil war.

Preventing Civil War

• People who have lived through civil war often say they didn’t see it coming.
• Understanding the factors that lead to civil war can help create a playbook to prevent it.
• Fighting for real democracy is necessary to ensure peace.

Summary

Predicting Civil War

Barbara F. Walter highlights the increasing number of civil wars since 1946 and the 38 factors that can potentially lead a country towards civil war. She emphasizes that only two factors, autocracy and identity-based political parties, are highly predictive.

The US’s Risk Factors

Walter discusses how the US’s democracy has been downgraded three times since 2016 and how the country possesses both highly predictive factors for civil war. She explains the risk posed by the decline of politically dominant groups, particularly white men who feel threatened by demographic change.

Demographic Change and Risk

The US is undergoing a transition from a majority white population to a majority nonwhite population, similar to other English-speaking countries. Walter emphasizes the need to address weak rule of law and unequal access to voting in order to manage this change and mitigate the risk of political violence.

Role of Business and Investments

Walter suggests that businesses can contribute to promoting democracy and addressing identity politics by investing in communities that have been left behind. She highlights the importance of investing in healthcare, education, and higher minimum wage to create a hopeful future for working-class communities.

Regulating Social Media

Regulating social media algorithms is proposed as a means to reduce the influence of divisive and harmful content. Walter argues for allowing free speech while preventing the amplification of incendiary messages, conspiracy theories, and hate speech, which can contribute to preventing civil war.

Preventing Civil War

Walter emphasizes that many people who have lived through civil war did not anticipate it. By understanding the factors that lead to civil war, societies can create a playbook to prevent it. She asserts that fighting for real democracy is crucial to ensuring peace.

Conclusion

Barbara F. Walter’s talk highlights the risks the United States faces in terms of political violence and the potential for civil war. By addressing weak rule of law, unequal access to voting, and investing in communities, there is hope for preventing such a scenario. Regulating social media and promoting real democracy are also essential in ensuring peace and stability in the country.