The Ben Shapiro Show – Ep. 1795 – WHO WON FIGHT NIGHT #1?

Intro

In this episode of “The Ben Shapiro Show,” Ben analyzes the first Republican primary debate and discusses the performance and momentum of the candidates. He also highlights the importance of understanding the metrics for winning and losing in a debate before determining who came out on top.

Main Takeaways

Understanding the Metrics for Winning and Losing in a Debate

• Before determining who won and lost in a debate, it is important to understand the metrics used to evaluate performance.
• Candidates are graded on truthfulness, decency, and policy performance.
• Policy performance is an advantage for candidates who have governed or achieved policy wins on the ground.

The Republican Party and the Four Lanes

• The Republican Party is not a cohesive entity, and the conservative movement is not a cohesive movement.
• In the Republican primary, there are four lanes: Trumpers, traditional GOP, liberal wing, and Trump adjacent.
• To challenge President Trump, a candidate must occupy multiple lanes and be the top person in multiple lanes.

Candidate Analysis

• Trump is the favored candidate for 2024 by 20% of the party.
• DeSantis is currently in second place in national polling and earns a B among Trumpers.
• The Vekrama Swami has an A with Trumpers but an F with the liberal wing.
• Mike Pence has an F among Trump and Trump adjacent categories but a B with traditional GOP.
• Nikki Haley has a D with Trumpers and Trump adjacent categories but an A with traditional GOP.
• Chris Christie has an F with Trumpers and Trump adjacent categories but an A with never Trumpers.
• Trump has an A plus with Trumpers and Trump adjacent categories and a B with traditional GOP.

Consolidating Non-Trump Wings of the Party

• To defeat Donald Trump, a candidate needs to consolidate the other three non-Trump wings of the party.
• The only candidates scoring among the Trump adjacent, liberal wing, and traditional GOP are DeSantis and Hawley.
• DeSantis initially seemed well positioned to consolidate the anti-Trump forces, but he’s been losing momentum.

Debate Performance and Momentum

• DeSantis is in second place but stagnant with all groups, his goal for the debate was to avoid the spotlight and gain attention from Trump adjacent voters.
• Nikki Haley’s goal was to show momentum in a lane, which she achieved.
• Tim Scott is not aggressive and has no clear goal to achieve, leaving his performance lackluster.
• Chris Christie’s goal was to lock down the never Trump lane, which he may have achieved.

Summary

Understanding the Metrics for Winning and Losing in a Debate

Before determining who won and lost in a debate, it is crucial to understand the metrics used for evaluation. Candidates are graded on truthfulness, decency, and policy performance. Policy performance is an advantage for candidates who have governed or achieved policy wins on the ground.

The Republican Party and the Four Lanes

The Republican Party is not a unified entity, and the conservative movement is not a cohesive movement. In the Republican primary, there are four lanes: Trumpers, traditional GOP, liberal wing, and Trump adjacent. To challenge President Trump, a candidate must occupy multiple lanes and be the top person in those lanes.

Candidate Analysis

Trump is the favored candidate for 2024 by 20% of the party. DeSantis is currently in second place in national polling and earns a B among Trumpers. The Vekrama Swami has an A with Trumpers but an F with the liberal wing. Mike Pence has an F among Trump and Trump adjacent categories but a B with traditional GOP. Nikki Haley has a D with Trumpers and Trump adjacent categories but an A with traditional GOP. Chris Christie has an F with Trumpers and Trump adjacent categories but an A with never Trumpers. Trump has an A plus with Trumpers and Trump adjacent categories and a B with traditional GOP.

Consolidating Non-Trump Wings of the Party

To defeat Donald Trump, a candidate needs to consolidate the other three non-Trump wings of the party. The only candidates scoring among the Trump adjacent, liberal wing, and traditional GOP are DeSantis and Hawley. DeSantis initially seemed well positioned to consolidate the anti-Trump forces, but he’s been losing momentum.

Debate Performance and Momentum

DeSantis is in second place but stagnant with all groups, his goal for the debate was to avoid the spotlight and gain attention from Trump adjacent voters. Nikki Haley’s goal was to show momentum in a lane, which she achieved. Tim Scott is not aggressive and has no clear goal to achieve, leaving his performance lackluster. Chris Christie’s goal was to lock down the never Trump lane, which he may have achieved.

Conclusion

The first Republican primary debate showcased the dynamics within the party and the challenges faced by candidates vying for the nomination. Understanding the metrics for winning and losing in a debate is crucial, and candidates need to consolidate support across different wings of the party to have a chance against Trump. While DeSantis and Haley showed momentum, Trump still maintains a strong lead, making it difficult for any candidate to surpass him. The road to the nomination remains competitive and unpredictable.