Intro
In this episode of “The Daily”, the focus is on the latest poll results that show Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied at 43% each. The episode explores the reasons behind this close race and analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates. It also delves into the opinions and beliefs of Republican voters regarding Trump and the other candidates in the primary. Additionally, the episode highlights the potential impact of undecided voters and the possibility of a third-party candidate in the upcoming election.
Main Takeaways
Donald Trump’s Strong Support in Republican Primary
- Donald Trump has a 37 point lead in the Republican primary with 54% of Republican primary voters supporting him.
- The Maga base, which is about 37% of all Republicans, strongly supports Donald Trump.
Republicans’ Beliefs and Opinions
- Republicans overwhelmingly reject the notion that Donald Trump committed serious federal crimes.
- Republicans believe that Donald Trump is likely to beat Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis in the next election.
- Over 90% of MAGA voters believe that Republicans need to stand by Donald Trump in the face of allegations.
- 17% of Republicans supporting Trump are not part of the MAGA base, but are more affluent and less conservative.
Challenges Faced by Ron DeSantis
- Ron DeSantis, the number two in the race, has to conclude that there isn’t all that much math to play with in terms of picking up voters.
- DeSantis’s theory of how he can win this election is not supported by this poll.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Trump and Biden
- Trump dominates the Republican field and national media conversation, making it difficult for other candidates to stand out.
- Trump’s strength is his ability to project himself as a strong leader, which is favored by a large majority of Republican voters.
- Biden also has weaknesses, with a majority of voters having an unfavorable view of him and thinking he has not done a good job as president.
- Biden’s weaknesses can be grouped into three buckets: the state of the economy, his age, and his mental acuity or health.
Undecided Voters and Potential Impact
- About 14% of the general election voters seem up for grabs, and they don’t like either candidate, but they are disproportionately young, black, Latino, and Democratic, which could be a decisive group of voters in a general election match up between Trump and Biden.
- A general election featuring these two candidates could be about who this 14% dislikes the least, which is good for Joe Biden as this group is very hostile towards Donald Trump.
- If these voters vote in 2024 the same way they voted in 2020, Joe Biden’s lead only grows to two points, so there’s no landslide around the corner once these 14% of voters make up their minds.
Potential Impact of Third-Party Candidate
- The possibility of a third-party candidate could prove extremely important with math this type, as a minor party candidate or a series of minor party candidates could attract considerable support.
Competitiveness of the Race
- The biggest takeaway is that all of the events of the last few years have not disqualified Donald Trump, at least not when he’s facing a Joe Biden with a 39% approval rating, and this race is competitive.
Summary
Donald Trump’s Strong Support and Republican Beliefs
The poll reveals that Donald Trump has a significant lead in the Republican primary, with strong support from the Maga base. Republicans overwhelmingly reject the idea that Trump committed serious federal crimes and believe he is likely to beat Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis in the next election. This support is driven by a conservative media landscape that portrays Trump as a victim of mistreatment.
Challenges Faced by Ron DeSantis
The poll suggests that Ron DeSantis faces challenges in gaining support and his theory of winning the election is not supported by the data. Despite his conservative policy accomplishments, Republican voters believe that Trump is more likely to get things done and perceive him as a stronger leader.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Trump and Biden
Trump’s dominance in the Republican field and his projection of strength as a leader give him an advantage. However, Biden also has weaknesses, including unfavorable views and concerns about the state of the economy, his age, and his mental acuity or health.
Impact of Undecided Voters and Potential Third-Party Candidate
The 14% of undecided voters, who dislike both candidates, could play a decisive role in a general election matchup between Trump and Biden. Additionally, the possibility of a third-party candidate attracting considerable support could have a significant impact on the race.
Conclusion
The poll results show a competitive race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, with Trump maintaining strong support among Republicans and Biden facing challenges in terms of voter perception. The undecided voters and the potential influence of a third-party candidate add further complexity to the election dynamics. As the race progresses, it will be crucial to monitor how these factors evolve and shape the outcome of the election.
