The Daily – An Armored Train and a Dangerous New Alliance?

Intro

In this episode of “The Daily,” the focus is on the recent meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders discuss a potential deal involving artillery shells, which could have significant implications for the ongoing war in Ukraine. This episode explores the motivations behind this alliance and the potential risks it poses for global security.

Main Takeaways

Russia’s Ammunition Deficit

• Russia is facing a significant ammunition deficit, producing only two million shells per year while firing over 10 million.
• They have been tapping into old stockpiles of artillery shells, but these are past their expiration date and less effective.
• US and European sanctions limit Russia’s options for acquiring ammunition from countries aligned with their interests.

Russia’s Search for Ammunition Suppliers

• Russia has turned to China for missiles, artillery shells, and drones, but China refused to sell to avoid risking international trade.
• They sought drones from Iran, but it did not solve their urgent ammunition shortage.
• Russia has now turned to North Korea, which has large stockpiles of well-maintained artillery shells.

The Implications for the War in Ukraine

• Russia’s deal with North Korea could impact the war in Ukraine, as artillery shells are crucial for both sides.
• Ukraine has been seeking military support from various countries, while Russia aims to secure a steady supply of ammunition.
• The alliance between Russia and North Korea may deepen fault lines across the Pacific and complicate the situation further.

The Risks and Consequences

• North Korea’s track record with missile launches is mixed, while Russian missiles are known for their reliability.
• There are risks for Russia, as North Korea is a proliferator and could potentially sell the technology to other countries.
• A shift in technology from Russia to North Korea could elevate North Korea’s global standing and force the US to address its nuclear program.

The Broader Geopolitical Context

• The war in Ukraine has brought China and Russia closer together, while also pushing America and its allies to strengthen their alliances.
• The Biden administration is focused on supporting Ukraine and building alliances against China in the Pacific.
• This deal between Russia and North Korea could deepen fault lines across the Pacific and increase global tensions.

Summary

Russia’s Ammunition Deficit and Search for Suppliers

Russia is facing a significant ammunition deficit, firing over 10 million shells annually but producing only two million. To compensate, Russia has been tapping into old stockpiles of artillery shells, but these are past their expiration date and less effective. US and European sanctions limit Russia’s options for acquiring ammunition from countries aligned with their interests. As a result, Russia has sought supplies from China and Iran, but these attempts have not fully resolved their urgent ammunition shortage. Now, they have turned to North Korea, which has large stockpiles of well-maintained artillery shells.

The Implications for the War in Ukraine

The deal between Russia and North Korea could have significant implications for the ongoing war in Ukraine. Artillery shells are crucial for both sides, and Ukraine has been seeking military support from various countries. Meanwhile, Russia aims to secure a steady supply of ammunition. This alliance between Russia and North Korea could deepen fault lines across the Pacific and complicate the situation further, potentially escalating tensions.

The Risks and Consequences

While Russian missiles are known for their reliability, North Korea’s track record with missile launches is mixed. The risks for Russia lie in North Korea’s potential to proliferate missile technology to other countries. While Russia is not offering nuclear technology, the deal could elevate North Korea’s global standing and force the US to address its nuclear program. This shift in technology from Russia to North Korea carries significant consequences and potential risks.

The Broader Geopolitical Context

The war in Ukraine has brought China and Russia closer together, but it has also pushed America and its allies to strengthen their alliances. The Biden administration is focused on supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia and building alliances against China in the Pacific. The deal between Russia and North Korea could deepen fault lines across the Pacific and increase global tensions, making the situation more fraught.

Conclusion

The meeting between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin, and the potential deal involving artillery shells, raises significant concerns and implications for global security. The alliance between Russia and North Korea could impact the war in Ukraine, deepen fault lines across the Pacific, and force the US to address North Korea’s nuclear program. As tensions rise and geopolitical dynamics shift, the consequences of this deal could have far-reaching effects on the international stage.