The Oct. 7 Warning That Israel Ignored | The Daily

Intro

In this episode of “The Daily”, host Ronen Bergman explores the Israeli military’s failure to anticipate a devastating terror attack by Hamas on October 7th. Bergman, a journalist deeply connected to the Israeli military and intelligence apparatus, uncovers the reasons behind the missed warning signs and the potential cover-up of a darker truth.

Main Takeaways

Israeli Intelligence Failures

• The Israeli military heavily relies on its intelligence services to provide pre-alerts about potential enemy strikes, influencing the country’s security strategy.
• The intelligence community in Israel has played a significant role in historical events and decision-making processes.
• Investigations revealed that the Israeli defense establishment had significantly reduced its focus on monitoring Hamas’ tactical communications, which may have contributed to the missed warning signs.
• The intelligence failure in understanding Hamas’ capabilities and intentions.
• Misreading of Hamas mindset, particularly the struggle between governance and permanent war.
• Israel’s belief that Hamas was leaning towards governance and away from war.
• Misunderstanding of Hamas’ intent and capacity, leading to underestimation of the threat.
• Israel’s miscalculation of Hamas’ military capabilities, especially the number of Nukhba Commandos.
• Israel’s reliance on technology to solve the problem of tunnels, leading to a false sense of security.

The Jericho Wall Plan

• Hamas gathered in-depth intelligence on Israel’s defense strategies and the Gaza division.
• The Jericho wall is designed to take down the Gaza division protecting the Israeli Gaza border.
• Hamas translated intelligence into a detailed attack plan, including bombardment, neutralizing cameras, and breaking defense in 60 places.
• An analyst warned about a drill in Gaza being a dry run for the Jericho wall plan, but was met with skepticism.
• The analyst’s warnings about the seriousness of the Jericho wall plan were dismissed by her colleagues.

The Consequences of the Intelligence Failure

• The Jericho wall report could have potentially prevented the October 7th attack in Israel if it had been taken more seriously and widely distributed.
• The failure to take the Jericho report seriously may result in severe consequences for the government, particularly for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
• The Israeli defense establishment’s failure to prevent the attack has caused a loss of trust and raised questions about the effectiveness of the military intelligence apparatus.
• The failure to protect citizens goes against the promise of protection that was a fundamental part of Israel’s establishment.
• The assumption that the defense establishment would always supply necessary security has been shattered, leaving people in Tel Aviv afraid to leave their houses.

Summary

Israeli Intelligence Failures

The Israeli military heavily relies on its intelligence services to provide pre-alerts about potential enemy strikes. However, investigations into the failure to anticipate the October 7th attack by Hamas revealed significant shortcomings in the Israeli defense establishment’s monitoring of Hamas’ tactical communications. This failure to understand Hamas’ capabilities and intentions, along with misreading their mindset and underestimating the threat, led to a false sense of security and vulnerability in Israel’s security system.

The Jericho Wall Plan

Hamas had gathered in-depth intelligence on Israel’s defense strategies and developed a detailed attack plan known as the Jericho wall. This plan aimed to take down the Gaza division protecting the Israeli Gaza border through bombardment, neutralizing cameras, and breaking defense in multiple locations. Despite warnings from an analyst about the seriousness of the Jericho wall plan, her concerns were dismissed by colleagues, leading to a missed opportunity to prevent the attack.

The Consequences of the Intelligence Failure

The failure to take the Jericho wall report seriously and distribute it widely had severe consequences. It could have potentially prevented the October 7th attack in Israel. The Israeli defense establishment’s failure has caused a loss of trust and raised questions about the effectiveness of the military intelligence apparatus. This failure to protect citizens goes against the promise of security that was a fundamental part of Israel’s establishment, leaving people in Tel Aviv afraid to leave their houses. The government, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, may face severe consequences due to the mishandling of intelligence.

Conclusion

The failure to anticipate the October 7th attack by Hamas has highlighted significant intelligence failures within the Israeli defense establishment. The missed warning signs and the dismissal of critical reports have shaken the trust of the Israeli people and raised questions about the government’s ability to provide security. This episode serves as a reminder of the importance of accurate and timely intelligence in shaping a country’s security strategy.