When Biden met Xi (and what’s going on with the US and China) | Ian Bremmer | Ted Talks Daily

Intro

In this episode of “Ted Talks Daily,” Ian Bremmer discusses the recent meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping and the current state of the US-China relationship. The meeting took place against a backdrop of global conflicts and geopolitical risks, with both countries recognizing the need to prevent further escalation. Bremmer explores various aspects of the US-China relationship, including their shared interests, economic challenges, AI governance, Belt and Road initiative, technology conflict, climate change efforts, and their influence in global institutions.

Main Takeaways

Shared Interest in Conflict Prevention

• The recent meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping highlighted the shared interest of the two most powerful countries in the world in preventing conflicts from escalating.
• Despite being on opposite sides of major global conflicts, such as Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, both the US and China are deeply concerned about these conflicts worsening and want to find ways to contain them.
• The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation is not being viewed through a Cold War lens, but rather as a real problem that needs to be addressed collectively with friends and allies in the regions.

Economic Challenges and Political Dysfunction

• China’s economy is underperforming due to various structural challenges, while the US is in a strong economic position but faces political dysfunction.
• President Biden’s policies towards China are consistent with those of President Trump, with a focus on containing China in advanced areas of the 21st century economy.
• The US is leading into industrial policy like the Chips Act, expanding export controls on semiconductors, and maintaining tariffs on Chinese goods, which China prefers over the Biden administration’s approach.

AI Governance and Future Implications

• Both the US and China are investing heavily in AI and its development will determine the viability of their political and economic models.
• Governments can use surveillance data to incentivize patriotic behavior, potentially leading to more polarization in democracies.
• The impact of planned economy vs. free market economy and authoritarian vs. democratic political systems in an AI-dominated future is uncertain.

Belt and Road Initiative and Global Influence

• The Belt and Road initiative, a massive infrastructure project by China, has expanded to the global south and Latin America.
• China’s influence in the global south is driven by state-owned enterprises and strategic coordination with the Chinese government.
• Chinese investments in Belt and Road did not perform well, resulting in bad debt that needs restructuring in countries like Pakistan, Zambia, and Sri Lanka.

Technology Conflict and Climate Change Efforts

• The conflict in technology between the US and China could lead to a tense structural relationship, creating a less efficient and more expensive industrial policy.
• The US and China are competing in climate change efforts, with the US concerned about China’s dominance in post-carbon technologies.
• Both countries have historically significant carbon emissions, and neither wants to bear the financial responsibility for loss and damages and transition for developing countries.

Influence in Global Institutions

• China’s shift from being a member of the global South to a leading carbon emitter and creditor to developing countries has changed the dynamics of global influence.
• Both the US and China have a vested interest in maintaining the existing status quo but seek to increase their influence within existing institutions.
• The Chinese are committed to the present global system, providing stability in a time of global unrest.

Summary

Shared Interest in Conflict Prevention

The recent meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping emphasized the shared interest of the US and China in preventing conflicts from escalating. Despite being on opposite sides of global conflicts, both countries recognize the need to contain these conflicts and address them collectively with regional allies. This approach reflects a departure from the Cold War lens and a focus on real problem-solving.

Economic Challenges and Political Dysfunction

China’s economy is facing structural challenges, leading to underperformance, while the US enjoys a strong economic position but struggles with political dysfunction. President Biden’s policies towards China align with those of his predecessor, focusing on containing China in advanced areas of the economy. The US is implementing industrial policies and export controls, which China prefers over a more cooperative approach.

AI Governance and Future Implications

Both the US and China are heavily investing in AI, and its development will shape the future of their political and economic models. However, AI governance raises questions about the impact on democracies and authoritarian countries. Surveillance data can be used to incentivize patriotic behavior, potentially leading to polarization. The US and China have different approaches to AI regulation, with the US focusing on government collaboration and Europe prioritizing privacy and data protection.

Belt and Road Initiative and Global Influence

China’s Belt and Road initiative, aimed at infrastructure development, has expanded to the global south and Latin America. However, Chinese investments in Belt and Road projects have faced challenges, resulting in bad debt in countries like Pakistan, Zambia, and Sri Lanka. China’s influence in the global south is driven by state-owned enterprises and strategic coordination with the Chinese government.

Technology Conflict and Climate Change Efforts

The US and China are engaged in a technology conflict, with the potential for a tense structural relationship. This conflict could impact industrial policies and increase costs. Additionally, both countries are competing in climate change efforts, with the US concerned about China’s dominance in post-carbon technologies. Both countries have significant carbon emissions but are reluctant to bear financial responsibility for developing countries’ transition.

Influence in Global Institutions

China’s shift from being a member of the global South to a leading carbon emitter and creditor to developing countries has altered the dynamics of global influence. Both the US and China aim to maintain the existing status quo while increasing their influence within global institutions. The Chinese are committed to the present global system, providing stability amidst global unrest.

Conclusion

The meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping highlighted the shared interest of the US and China in preventing conflicts from escalating. Despite their differences, both countries recognize the need for cooperation and engagement in various areas, including economic challenges, AI governance, Belt and Road initiative, technology conflict, climate change efforts, and global institutions. The US-China relationship is crucial for global stability and economic interests, and both countries are navigating the complexities of their relationship while seeking to protect their own interests.