2024 Predictions | The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

Intro

In this episode of “The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway,” the host shares their predictions for 2024, reflecting on the accuracy of their previous year’s predictions and discussing what to expect in the year ahead.

Main Takeaways

2024 Predictions

• The episode kicks off with the host sharing their 2024 predictions, reflecting on their previous year’s predictions and what to expect in the year ahead.
• Predictions from 2023 are reviewed, highlighting the difficulty of making accurate predictions.
• Previous predictions about Disney acquiring Roblox and Tesla stock being cut in half are acknowledged as incorrect.
• The undervaluation of ByteDance compared to Meta is discussed, with ByteDance’s growth rate and valuation being highlighted.
• The net income margins have grown, but not at the same scale.
• Predicted stocks: Airbnb, Meta, and Chinese internet stocks.
• Airbnb had a 66% increase, Meta had a 167% increase, but Chinese internet stocks were predicted wrong.
• Predicted a recession for the growth economy, which occurred with layoffs.
• Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta had a profitable year with cost cutting and revenue growth.
• Meta reduced expenses by 7% and grew revenues by 23%, resulting in an explosion in net income and stock price.
• Epic Games won a trial against Google, showing a shift in public sentiment against big tech and a decline in favorability of companies like Tesla and Elon Musk.
• Home cable TV ownership fell below 50% for the first time, and there was a significant decline in broadcast advertising spending.
• The entertainment industry experienced a shift, with a decline in earnings for actors and a recommendation for young people to pursue industries with higher employment rates.
• The rise of AI and the dominance of TikTok as a propaganda tool were predicted, and the US economy was described as a “Goldilocks economy” with low inflation and strong growth.
• Over the last 40 years, wealth has been transferred from young people to the elderly, impacting their ability to afford homes, education, and healthcare.
• The massive military spending in the US has helped prevent widespread conflict in the Middle East.
• The US’s withdrawal from the Middle East has created a power vacuum, contributing to geopolitical issues.
• Masterclass and LinkedIn are highlighted as resources for personal and professional development.
• According to LinkedIn, 86% of small businesses find a qualified quality candidate within 24 hours of posting a job for free on LinkedIn.com/prof.
• The housing crisis is a result of raising interest rates, leading to a lack of liquidity despite interest rates skyrocketing.
• Predictions for 2024 include a vast acceleration in home sales and the rise of alternative housing such as smaller modular homes.
• Travel market to continue booming as many young people opt to spend money on travel instead of saving for a house.
• There is a significant shortage of homes, and the cost of housing has vastly accelerated, making it unaffordable for many young people.
• The median age of home buyers has increased significantly, with repeat buyers averaging 58 years old and all buyers averaging 49 years old.
• The average age of home buyers has increased to almost 50 years old, with 40% of them paying all cash, indicating that the American dream of homeownership is sequestered to older people with more wealth.
• Older people are staying at home instead of moving into assisted living facilities, which reduces housing stock and puts strain on government resources.
• The pending home sales index is at its lowest point in 20 years, and alternative dwelling unit permits are skyrocketing, indicating a shift in the housing market.
• There is a decline in people seeing homeownership as the American dream, leading to potential outperformance of travel stocks in the market.
• The rise of TikTok creators is putting pressure on traditional media, with 850 million creators on TikTok compared to half a million people working in streaming media.
• Traditional media is struggling due to the shift in consumer behavior, with younger audiences favoring platforms like TikTok over cable TV or Netflix.
• The Hollywood ecosystem is predicted to face continued consolidation and mergers, with Warner Brothers and Discovery being potential targets.
• The most important advertisers are targeting young males, who are more inclined to buy unnecessary products, but they are not watching traditional broadcast or ad-supported television.
• Winners in the media landscape include sports, TikTok, YouTube, Netflix, and generative AI, while linear TV and Hollywood creatives are losing ground.
• Disney and Warner Brothers Discovery are expected to perform well due to their distressed asset status, attracting potential investors and acquisition interest.
• A prediction for 2024 suggests that TikTok will expand and disrupt the music and streaming industry, potentially impacting Spotify and Netflix.
• Netflix has effectively built a time machine, saving viewers time by eliminating commercials and offering a wide range of content.
• TikTok is disrupting Netflix by providing a vast array of content and quick decision-making, saving viewers time and energy.
• Alphabet (Google) is a promising tech stock pick due to its diversified business, including a growing cloud business and the strategic advantage of YouTube over TikTok in India.
• YouTube has a significant advantage over TikTok in India, with 460 million users compared to TikTok’s ban in the country.
• Peak AI valuation is predicted, with existing players like Alphabet and Microsoft expected to dominate AI revenues, while new players’ valuations are seen as inflated.
• OpenAI’s valuation is considered fully priced, with AI companies’ valuations being viewed as frothy and potentially overinflated.
• OpenAI’s success has attracted competition, with Google being a potential contender in the AI space.
• Google’s Gemini introduction and product launch video suggest its potential dominance in the AI space, similar to Apple’s entry into the smartphone market.
• AI-inspired market cap gains have added about $3 trillion in value, but the market is considered fully valued.
• The greatest threat of AI is loneliness, with searches for AI girlfriends increasing, and AI is expected to have a deflationary impact on wages and inflation.
• GLP1 drugs, which act as craving suppressants, are predicted to have a significant impact on the economy, potentially greater than AI, due to their potential to address obesity-related costs.
• Obesity is a significant issue, causing more deaths than pandemics and being the leading preventable cause of death.
• There is a need to stop romanticizing unhealthy lifestyles and focus on addressing obesity through medication and treatment.
• GLP1 drugs show promise in reducing food intake, alcohol consumption, and other addictive behaviors associated with obesity.
• The market is likely to respond to the potential decrease in obesity, impacting industries such as hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage companies.
• The potential decrease in obesity could lead to changes in stock prices for companies in various sectors.
• The decrease in obesity may have positive impacts, such as cost savings for airlines, a potential baby boom, and increased demand for fitness, sports, and clothing.
• There is hope that increased investment in GLP1 drugs will lead to wider access for those who truly need them.
• Swing states like Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia will determine the election, not the small number of counties.
• The Kingdom and India are becoming geopolitical swing states between Europe and the US and China and Russia.
• India is now the biggest nation in the world and is adding more people to the consumptive middle class than any other nation.
• The Kingdom’s pivot to capitalism is the most significant geopolitical event of the last decade, leading to huge ramifications for the West.
• The Kingdom’s reforms are dramatic and beneficial for the West, with a declining share of GDP from fossil fuels and a pivot towards capitalism and Western values.
• Closer integration with India and the Kingdom could make the US more powerful by incorporating or co-opting swing votes.
• A potential US-China partnership could lead to the largest global tax cut in history and lower the cost of products globally.
• China may temper its aggressiveness due to a slowing economy, and a renewed partnership between the US and China is likely.
• Inflation in the US and stagnation in China could be solved by a US-China partnership, potentially threatening Biden’s reelection if inflation returns.
• Twitter has experienced a historic decline in revenue, with a 54% decrease in one year.
• Predictions for the latter half of the year include a housing sales boom, alternative housing trends, and a sugar high in travel stocks.
• Expectations for Paramount, Disney, Warner Brothers Discovery, and Disney to consolidate or be consolidated due to low valuations.
• Alphabet is expected to be a disruptor of traditional disruptors, putting pressure on Netflix and Spotify.
• India is seen as the new China, and normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom, and Israel is anticipated.
• Predictions include Twitter being sold, the end of the national nightmare, and Snapchat becoming the next growth vehicle.
• AI is predicted to impact loneliness, particularly among young men in non-traditional relationships.
• Speculation on Biden’s reelection and Trump’s potential sentencing, with statistical and mathematical analysis.
• Hope for 2024 includes an unpredictable winner of the Premier League and l
• Scott Galloway emphasizes the importance of men, including the wealthiest man in the world and the former president, embracing their roles as protectors and providers.
• He calls for men to exhibit courage and take action to address poverty and cruelty in society.
• Scott Galloway, a professor at NYU, urges men to step up and be proactive in making positive changes in the world.

Summary

2024 Predictions and Reflections

The episode begins with the host sharing their predictions for 2024, reflecting on the accuracy of their previous year’s predictions. They discuss the difficulty of making accurate predictions and acknowledge some incorrect predictions, such as Disney acquiring Roblox and Tesla stock being cut in half. The undervaluation of ByteDance compared to Meta is highlighted, with ByteDance’s growth rate and valuation being discussed. The net income margins have grown, but not at the same scale.

Stock Market and Economic Predictions

The host shares predictions for various stocks, including Airbnb, Meta, and Chinese internet stocks. Airbnb experienced a 66% increase, Meta had a 167% increase, but the predictions for Chinese internet stocks were incorrect. The episode discusses the impact of the streaming market consolidation and overinvestment, leading to cost-cutting measures. The host predicted a recession for the growth economy, which occurred with layoffs. Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta had a profitable year with cost-cutting and revenue growth. Meta reduced expenses by 7% and grew revenues by 23%, resulting in an explosion in net income and stock price. Operating costs increased by 6% with a 13% rise in revenue, leading to a significant increase in operating profits.

Shifts in Media and Entertainment

The episode highlights significant shifts in the media and entertainment industry. Epic Games winning a trial against Google is seen as a shift in public sentiment against big tech. Home cable TV ownership fell below 50% for the first time, and there was a decline in broadcast advertising spending. The entertainment industry experienced a decline in earnings for actors, and younger audiences are favoring platforms like TikTok over traditional media. The Hollywood ecosystem is predicted to face consolidation and mergers, with Warner Brothers and Discovery being potential targets. Sports, TikTok, YouTube, Netflix, and generative AI are identified as winners in the media landscape, while linear TV and Hollywood creatives are losing ground. Disney and Warner Brothers Discovery are expected to perform well due to their distressed asset status. TikTok is predicted to disrupt the music and streaming industry, potentially impacting Spotify and Netflix.

Housing Market and Alternative Housing Trends

The episode discusses the state of the housing market, including a significant shortage of homes and the accelerated cost of housing, making it unaffordable for many young people. The median age of homebuyers has increased, and the American dream of homeownership is seen as sequestered to older people with more wealth. The decline in homeownership as the American dream may lead to the outperformance of travel stocks in the market. Alternative housing trends, such as smaller modular homes, are predicted to rise. The travel market is expected to continue booming as many young people prioritize spending money on travel instead of saving for a house.

Impact of AI and Obesity

The rise of AI and its impact on society are explored. The dominance of TikTok as a propaganda tool and the US economy being described as a “Goldilocks economy” are discussed. The episode highlights the transfer of wealth from young people to the elderly over the last 40 years, impacting their ability to afford homes, education, and healthcare. The potential decrease in obesity is seen as a significant factor that could impact various industries, such as hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage companies. GLP1 drugs, which act as craving suppressants, are predicted to have a significant impact on the economy, potentially greater than AI. The episode emphasizes the need to address obesity through medication and treatment.

Geopolitical Shifts and Election Predictions

The episode explores geopolitical shifts, including swing states like Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia playing a crucial role in determining the election. The Kingdom and India are seen as geopolitical swing states between Europe and the US and China and Russia. The Kingdom’s pivot to capitalism and India’s growing middle class are highlighted as significant geopolitical events. The potential partnership between the US and China is discussed, which could lead to a global tax cut and lower product costs. The episode also speculates on the reelection of President Biden and the potential sentencing of former President Trump. Various predictions for the latter half of the year are made, including a housing sales boom, consolidation in the media industry, and the impact of AI on loneliness.

Scott Galloway’s Call to Action

Scott Galloway emphasizes the importance of men embracing their roles as protectors and providers. He calls for men to exhibit courage and take action to address poverty and cruelty in society. As a professor at NYU, Galloway urges men to step up and be proactive in making positive changes in the world.

Conclusion

In this episode of “The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway,” the host shares their predictions for 2024 and reflects on the accuracy of their previous year’s predictions. They discuss various topics, including the stock market, media and entertainment industry, housing market, impact of AI, obesity, geopolitical shifts, and election predictions. Scott Galloway emphasizes the importance of men taking action to address societal issues. Overall, the episode provides insightful and thought-provoking predictions for the year ahead.